Why Congress leaders fear AAP could dent party’s poll prospects in Haryana?

Efforts to forge a pre-poll alliance between Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have fallen apart as they failed to reach a consensus on seat-sharing. The AAP demanded a larger number of seats, including prominent ones, which Congress was unwilling to provide. However, ignoring AAP on the basis of its performance in 2019–when it lost all 46 seats and received less than one per cent of the vote–may cost Congress dearly in Haryana.
Congress leaders are expressing concerns that AAP will divide the anti-BJP vote and capture floating votes as well as Congress’s core votes.
“There is a direct fight between BJP and Congress in Haryana. We want to appeal to the people that if the fight is only between Congress and BJP, splitting votes will only benefit the BJP. If you wish to vote against the BJP, that vote should go to Congress, which is the only party capable of defeating the BJP,” said Congress observer Ajay Makan.
Senior party leader Sandeep Dixit has also voiced similar concerns, stating that “AAP only contests elections where Congress is stronger or in power”.
Arvind Kejriwal’s release from jail and resignation are expected to shift the dynamics of the Haryana assembly election battle.
Kejriwal and other AAP leaders are already employing emotional appeals in Haryana and elsewhere to garner public support. Although the party has yet to release its campaign schedule, leaders in Haryana have begun preparing in strategic constituencies where Kejriwal will launch an attack against the BJP.
Before Kejriwal’s release from jail, Congress had been apparently downplaying AAP, which has less than one per cent of the vote share in the state. However, AAP’s renewed strategy to challenge both Congress and BJP has raised concerns among Congress leaders.
“AAP is targeting the floating vote share, which neither goes to BJP nor to Congress. It also aims to increase the anti-BJP vote share, which may affect Congress,” says Professor Gurmeet Singh, a Chandigarh-based political analyst.
Some Congress leaders, such as Birender Singh Chaudhary, believe that AAP lacks a solid base in the state. “AAP will go to any length to woo voters, but the emotional appeal will not work. They tried this strategy in Delhi but lost all Lok Sabha seats,” says Chaudhary.
While AAP did not win the 2024 Kurukshetra Lok Sabha election, its performance in four assembly constituencies–Guhla, Pehowa, Shahabad, and Kalayat–boosted its morale, leading the party to demand nine to ten assembly segments during alliance talks with Congress.
However, the party still faces challenges competing with major players like the ruling BJP and opposition Congress, as well as smaller parties like the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janta Dal (JJP), which, despite their struggles, have higher vote shares.
AAP also needs a more robust organisation in Haryana compared to Delhi and Punjab. It has a limited number of prominent figures, such as Kejriwal, Anurag Dhanda, and state president Susheel Kumar Gupta. Despite this, the party is determined to give Congress and BJP a tough fight.
Arvind Kejriwal’s release from jail and subsequent resignation as Delhi Chief Minister has highlighted AAP’s strategy for Haryana.
AAP will use emotional appeals in the state, with Arvind Kejriwal, his wife Sunita Kejriwal, and other prominent figures conducting door-to-door campaigns. Kejriwal often introduces himself as the son of Haryana, being from Sivani village in the Bhiwani district.
Despite the challenges, AAP remains optimistic about Haryana following its expansion into rural and urban areas. The party has recruited over 1.80 lakh volunteers to manage the campaign.
After its defeat in 2019, when it lost all the seats, AAP has expanded its support base. The party has focused on each ward with a sufficient number of volunteers managing voters. AAP is now contesting all 90 seats in Haryana, compared to just 46 in 2019, with a significant supporter base.
Party spokesperson Vaibhav told India Today that, in addition to 12,000 state, district, and Wing members, each ward will be managed by 18 to 21 volunteers in the state’s 8,000 villages. The Haryana unit has also established wings of retired employees, most of whom are teachers, and has set up a war room in Rohtak.
AAP leader and parliamentarian Raghav Chadha recently warned rivals Congress and BJP not to underestimate AAP.
“The past six months have been very tough for the people of New Delhi and for AAP. Arvind Kejriwal will lead the election campaign in Haryana, where people are seeking an alternative as they are tired of conventional political parties,” says Chadha.
AAP, which is in power in Delhi and Punjab, is expected to perform well in nine Haryana districts, covering 34 assembly segments, located on the borders of Delhi and Punjab.
Sonipat and Gurugram are on the Delhi side, while Panchkula, Ambala, Kurukshetra, Kaithal, Fatehabad, Jind, and Sirsa districts are on the Punjab border. Interestingly, seven of these districts also have the second-largest Sikh population after Punjab.
Arvind Kejriwal is expected to focus more on Haryana after the resignation. His resignation is seen as an attempt to revitalise political fortunes in both Delhi and Haryana, especially after a poor showing in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
The party’s ‘Kattar Imandar’ image was also tarnished by serious corruption charges against top party members, including Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Satyendra Jain.
Meanwhile, the BJP is also focusing on Haryana and addressing internal dissent, which could benefit its rivals. Analysts believe that Kejriwal’s aggressive campaigning will affect both Congress and BJP. They also note that there is higher acceptance of AAP in urban areas where BJP is less opposed.
The main challenge for Congress will be retaining the anti-BJP vote share, particularly in areas near the Punjab and Delhi borders, where AAP might influence the outcome.
The question remains whether Kejriwal’s emotional appeals and focus on Haryana will disrupt Congress’s strategy and successfully convert votes.